Little post

Hey, I got a comment on my last post asking for an EV graph so here it is, Im pretty sure he and some others were probably expecting some sick luckbox 10k above ev, but there are many ways to be a luckbox without ev! Ive been pretty bang on most of the time which is good for the mind, and am in fact below ev so maybe entitled to a moan!

SPORTS BETTING

A bit of history to this. For two years before I took poker on very seriously I was very enthusiastic with my football betting. I was a member of a few "punting" websites where people discuss views and tips, then eventually towards the latter stages I was invited to a few private forums for "elite" tipping. Eventually even though winning I lost some interest because I was so fixated on poker and the money i could make from that, there was a lot more potential, faster too!

I started off like your average noob, betting on 15 team accumulators, correct scores, score casts all the mug punter crap, eventually through speaking to the right people got it drummed into me that Singles are the only way to make a serious buck out of it, long term.

Eventually I grasped the concept of value and the odds made more sense in my head, I started to distinguish what value bets were, it doesn't matter if I think Newcastle are going to win, if they are 1/3 on there isn't enough value. Its all about %, every team has a given % to win a match, the bookmakers have there opinion, and I have my own.

If I think a team have a 33% (2/1) chance of winning a match and they are 4/1 (20%) I'm going to snap that up, even though 2/3 times they wont win. Its all about the long term.

Its a very basic concept which many will be familiar with but its still sup rising how many people fail to grasp or just plain ignore it. Its very similar to poker, the variance is likewise quite huge.

In terms of football itself variance is massive, its all results oriented which poker theory teaches is not quite the right approach! Although to a certain extent it's enough. I suppose any premiership teams will deviate at most 15pts from what they should really achieve over 38 games, although its hard to nail down a figure.

Anyway I used to bet mainly long prices and even had my own very profitable 2/1 system going (which was more of a strategy really).. had a few followers and when it was retired through neglect it was pretty much at its peak.

Once I got settled with poker I started to dabble back into it, by this point I was quite out of touch so my bets were few and far between. I got to a point two seasons ago in the last half where I was bang in the game again, my knowledge was as high as it had been, and I was doing more bets, successfully too.. (ante post bets were where i found some sick value) The following season, last season, in the first 6 months I lost touch again, I did the odd bet here and there when I thought it was on, but my knowledge wasn't enough to do as many as I would have liked.

Also I was a massive degen during these years and the less money I retained the less money I had to indulge myself into sports betting, even though I knew how +ev it was. Towards the end of last season I was on fire again, I was up to date with everything lower league, and I made a decent sum. During the summer would have liked to place a huge ton of ante post bets because I know there was a lot of good value out there, but through degen sessions again I didn't want to tie up money for a season, the opportunity cost of playing blackjack is huge! But that's not even a problem anymore, just a mistake from the past.

So onto this season and I decided ok sit back first month or so, keep bang on it with all the lower leagues and then go really serious this season and keep records of how im doing, basically a recorded season of profitability from my football betting to build the confidence and drive on into future years, its never going away!

If I can add this to my repertoire it would be amazing, the more money I retain from poker the more I can invest in a way into a profitable strategy of football betting. If it has a positive ROI then the returns could be potentially huge

Now before I list my bets from this season so far, I appreciate its all after eventing and its useless saying oh I bet on this, this and that. Anyone can do that.

But im an honest person and right at the start of this blog there were comments I recall about how my poker profession was a lie..It was another load of shite, online poker player with a big ego making stuff up, but obviously 3 years and a million graphs of proof of earnings later its not a problem! Its like when I first started playing poker professionally, 95% of people instantly think "youll lose in the end" "but how much do you lose" or that im even lying, again fast forward years later its been proven otherwise, everyone grasps that pro poker player is actually a legitimate way to make a living, for quite a lot of people too.. unless you come ac cross someone you meet first time! Then the stereo types kick in.

My point being; yes this is all worthless right now but im gonna keep a record of my season bets just like I do with poker on here. What im going to do is keep a separate log of bets made after this post, which ill put up before the event so then its 100% beyond doubt that the bet was made before the outcome, even though I have no reason to lie in the first place!

I have a 1-6pt system, 6pts obviously being a huge value bet, this will come up very rarely.

You can put whatever £ figure you like to represent 1pt, you can bet £5 a point or £5000 per point. Its all about long term profit.

Mainly my bets are longer odds so I have more losers than winners, but when they do come in they are nice big returns, not always the case, there are some short prices thrown in there!



BET TYPE.................. ODDS......STAKE....RESULT.RETURN

HUDDERSFIELD TO WIN.......(8/11)..... 3.5.... WON... 6.045
BRENTFORD TO WIN..........(9/4)...... 1.5.... LOST.. 0
CHARLTON WIN TO NIL.......(7/4)...... 1...... LOST.. 0
BURTON TO WIN.............(3/1)...... 2...... WON... 4
WIMBLEDON TO WIN..........(10/3)..... 2...... WON... 8.666
COLCHESTER TO WIN.........(5/6)...... 2...... LOST.. 0
SHEFF WED TO WIN..........(8/11)..... 3...... WON... 5.182
SHRESWBURY TO WIN.........(4/6)...... 2.5.... WON... 4.165
SOUTHEND TO WIN...........(6/4)...... 6...... WON... 15

IPSWICH TO WIN............(11/4)..... 1.25... LOST.. 0
M'BORO WIN TO NIL.........(2/1)...... 2.25... LOST.. 0
NOTTS C TO WIN............(7/4)...... 3.5.... WON... 9.625
NOTTS C -1 TO WIN.........(19/4)..... 1...... WON... 5.75
WIMBLEDON TO WIN..........(1/1)...... 2...... LOST.. 0
SOUTHEND TO WIN...........(20/21).... 1...... LOST.. 0
CRYSTAL P TO WIN..........(10/11).... 2...... WON... 3.818

LEEDS TO WIN..............(19/10).... 1.5.... WON... 4.35
BARLSLEY +1 TO WIN........(6/5)...... 0.5.... LOST.. 0
HULL WIN TO NIL...........(15/8)..... 1.5.... LOST.. 0
LEICESTER WIN TO NIL......(15/8)..... 1.5.... LOST.. 0
CARLISLE DRAW NO BET......(5/2)...... 1.25... LOST.. 0
CARLISLE +1 TO WIN........(11/10).... 1.25... LOST.. 0
HUDDERSFIELD TO WIN.......(10/11).... 1...... WON... 1.909
CREWE -1 TO WIN...........(7/2)...... 0.5.... LOST.. 0
DAG VS ALD OVER 2.5 GOALS.(11/10).... 0.75... WON... 1.575
SHREWSBURY TO WIN.........(2/1)...... 4 ..... LOST.. 0
SHREWSBURY -1 TO WIN......(5/1)...... 0.75... LOST.. 0
SHREWSBURY -2 TO WIN......(14/1)..... 0.25... LOST.. 0
SOUTHEND -1 TO WIN........(9/4)...... 1.25... WON... 4.063
CHELTENHAM TO WIN.........(19/10).... 1.5.... WON... 4.35
MAN CITY TO WIN...........(3/1)...... 2...... WON... 8

BRENTFORD TO WIN..........(11/8)..... 0.5.... LOST.. 0
SHEFF WEDS DRAW NO BET....(1/1)...... 2...... LOST.. 0
COLCHESTER TO WIN.........(1/1)...... 1.25... LOST.. 0
TRANMERE DRAW NO BET......(6/5)...... 1.75....WON... 3.85
SOUTHEND -1 TO WIN........(7/2)...... 2.25... WON... 10.125
SOUTHEND TO WIN...........(23/20).... 1.25... WON... 2.687
B ROV V PV OVER 2.5 GOALS.(8/11)..... 1...... WON... 1.727
B ROV V PV OVER 3.5 GOALS.(2/1)...... 1...... LOST.. 0
HEREFORD DOUBLE CHANCE....(10/11).... 2.5.... WON... 4.773
HEREFORD TO WIN...........(3/1)...... 1...... WON... 4
WIMBLEDON TO WIN..........(2/1)...... 3.5.... LOST.. 0
WIMBLEDON -1 TO WIN......(11/2)..... 0.75... LOST.. 0
WIMBLEDON -2 TO WIN.......(14/1)..... 0.25... LOST.. 0
BURY TO WIN...............(11/4)..... 2...... LOST.. 0
PLYMOUTH TO WIN...........(18/5)..... 1...... LOST.. 0
CREWE TO WIN..............(14/5)..... 1.5.... LOST.. 0
ARSENAL V EVERTON 0-1GOALS(3/1)...... 1.5.... WON... 6
NAPOLI TO WIN.............(5/6)...... 3...... WON... 5.5
CHELSEA TO WIN............(4/5)...... 3.5.... WON... 6.3
OLYMPIAKOS TO WIN.........(1/1)...... 3.5.... WON... 7
BARCELONA TO WIN..........(2/1)...... 2...... WON... 6
COLCHESTER TO WIN.........(19/10).... 2.5.... WON... 7.25
BOLTON TO WIN.............(11/4)..... 1...... WON... 4.75

ANTE POST BETS (1-15PT SCALE)

DAVID SILVA PFA PLAYER OF THE SEASON 12PTS 15/2
NORWICH TO BE RELEGATED 8PTS 5/6
WEST HAM TO BE PROMOTED 14PTS 2/1
NORWICH CONCEDE MOST GOALS 3PTS 7/1
PORT VALE TO FINISH TOP 7 7PTS 5/2
DARRYL DUFFY TOP L2 SCORER (E/W) 1PT 50/1


STAKED: 96.5PTS

RETURN: 156.46PTS

PROFIT: 59.96PTS

So basically if you were backing everything I did £500 per 1 pt, you would be up £30 000

I wish I was backing £500 per 1pt! I started off smaller like £50 per point, and obviously as Ive been crushing Ive been backing larger and larger amounts per pnt, not quite £500 though! The more I retain through poker the higher I can go, and im convinced im mega +ev

Anyway now ill keep a new log of my bets with a timeline proof on here. Ive also had 15-20 other bets that arent logged on the spreadsheet on this PC, im in profit there also! So when they re added its even more impressive, they should be in the middle of all them bets somewhere.

With sports betting I can take my current sources of income to four, poker being the main number one. Through staking players and through another source Im bringing in £25k-£30k per year lately which looks increasingly likely to increase close to £40-45k for 2012..then if I can add some good profitable sportsbetting, looking at a huge income outside of even poker! Which is obviously the dream for every poker player.